A taxa de lucro na economia brasileira: análise metodológica e estimativa empírica (2000-2020)

Abstract

The dissertation aims to analyze the main factors that explain the variations in the profit rate of the Brazilian economy from 2000 to 2020. The investigation covers three main dimensions: I) Estimating the trajectory of the profit rate using national accounts data combined with fixed capital stock series constructed by the perpetual inventory method (PIM), as well as an alternative estimate based on the calculation of the Marxist value added; II) The decomposition of the profit rate through a medium-term approach, which allows isolating the contribution of each factor to the observed variations; and III) A discussion of the limits of the PIM and the specific barriers of the Brazilian context in measuring the capital stock. Throughout the work, the definitions and classifications of the profit rate are discussed, as well as the methodological procedures involved in measuring the capital stock. The study highlights the limitations of the PIM, noting that in Brazil, the lack of national data leads to the adoption of parameters and assumptions regarding depreciation and asset lifespan based on foreign estimates, which can compromise the accuracy of the results. The obtained estimates reveal significant fluctuations in the profit rate over the period but indicate that, within the analyzed horizon, no clear downward trend in the profit rate is observed. The observed fluctuations are strongly associated with capital productivity and the relationship between GDP deflators and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). The medium-term decomposition showed that the product/capital ratio played a central role in explaining the fluctuations in the profit rate, especially in the second half of the series, while the share of profits in income remained relatively stable.