Exploração da complementaridade eólica offshore para redução da variabilidade de geração correções banca

Abstract

Wind energy is a powerful resource contributing to the decarbonization of the electric grid. However, wind power penetration introduces uncertainty about the availability of wind energy. This work addresses the complementarity of remote offshore wind sites in Brazil, demonstrating that strategic distribution of wind farms can significantly reduce the seasonality and the risk of periods without generation and reduce dependence on fossil sources. Field observations, atmospheric reanalysis, and simplified optimization methods are combined to demonstrate generation improvement considering regions under environmental licensing and areas not yet considered for offshore development. Aggregated power results demonstrate that with the relocation of the wind turbines, a reduction of 66.1% of the variability of the network is possible, with a penalty of only 9% of the generated energy and for the results of optimization of the diurnal variability, an improvement of 12.6% is possible. This is accomplished through optimization and the inclusion of the northern region, which presents negative correlations with all other stations. More specifically, the north and northeast of Brazil have large seasonal amplitudes. However, out-of-phase wind regimes with a strong negative correlation (R < −0.6) and high-capacity factors (CF) during the peak seasons that occur in Jan-Feb-Mar in the north (CF > 0.5) and in Aug-Sep-Oct in the northeast (CF > 0.7). These complementary regimes allow for the introduction of the concept of Reserve Wind Power (RWP) plants, wind farms that can be viewed as “reserve sources” for energy security. These can replace the contracts of thermal reserve plants, with resulting economic and environmental advantages. Our analysis suggests that RWP plants can be 20 to 32% cheaper than thermal reserves in the current market.